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  14. There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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    A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

    It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

    Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

    Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

    The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

    All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

    For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

    It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
    Why so many ghosts?
    No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

    The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

    The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

    Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

    The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

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  64. Scientists mapped what happens if a crucial system of ocean currents collapses. The weather impact would be extreme
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    The collapse of a crucial network of Atlantic Ocean currents could push parts of the world into a deep freeze, with winter temperatures plunging to around minus 55 degrees Fahrenheit in some cities, bringing “profound climate and societal impacts,” according to a new study.

    There is increasing concern about the future of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — known as the AMOC — a system of currents that works like a giant conveyor belt, pulling warm water from the Southern Hemisphere and tropics to the Northern Hemisphere, where it cools, sinks and flows back south.

    Multiple studies suggest the AMOC is weakening with some projecting it could even collapse this century as global warming disrupts the balance of heat and salinity that keeps it moving. This would usher in huge global weather and climate shifts — including plunging temperatures in Europe, which relies on the AMOC for its mild climate.

    What’s less clear, however, is how these impacts will unfold in a world heated up by humans burning fossil fuels.

    “What if the AMOC collapses and we have climate change? Does the cooling win or does the warming win?” asked Rene van Westen, a marine and atmospheric researcher at Utrecht University in the Netherlands and co-author of the paper published Wednesday in the Geophysical Research Letters journal.

    This new study is the first to use a modern, complex climate model to answer the question, he told CNN.
    The researchers looked at a scenario where the AMOC weakens by 80% and the Earth is around 2 degrees Celsius warmer than the period before humans began burning large amounts of fossil fuels. The planet is currently at 1.2 degrees of warming.

    They focused on what would happen as the climate stabilized post-collapse, multiple decades into the future.

    Even in this hotter world, they found “substantial cooling” over Europe with sharp drops in average winter temperatures and more intense cold extremes — a very different picture than the United States, where the study found temperatures would continue to increase even with an AMOC collapse.

    Sea ice would spread southward as far as Scandinavia, parts of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, the research found. This would have a huge impact on cold extremes as the white surface of the ice reflects the sun’s energy back into space, amplifying cooling.

    The scientists have created an interactive map to visualize the impacts of an AMOC collapse across the globe.

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  74. Tree-covered mountains rise behind a pile of trash, children run through the orange haze of a dust storm, and a billboard standing on parched earth indicates where the seashore used to be before desertification took hold. These striking images, exhibited as part of the Right Here, Right Now Global Climate Summit, show the devastating effects of climate change.
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    The summit, held at the University of Oxford in the UK and supported by UN Human Rights (OHCHR), aims to reframe climate change as a human rights crisis and spotlight climate solutions. It works with everyone from policymakers to artists to get the message across.

    “Photographers document the human rights impacts of climate change, helping to inform the public and hold governments and businesses accountable,” said Volker Turk, UN High Commissioner for the OHCHR, via email. “The Right Here, Right Now Global Climate Summit shows the power of collective action — uniting storytellers, scientists, indigenous leaders, and others to advance climate solutions rooted in human rights.”

    Coinciding with World Environment Day on June 5, the exhibition — titled “Photography 4 Humanity: A Lens on Climate Justice” — features the work of 31 photographers from across the globe, all documenting the effects of global warming and environmental pollution on their own communities.

    Climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable populations around the world. Despite emitting far fewer greenhouse gases, low-income nations are suffering the most from extreme weather events and have fewer resources to adapt or recover.
    Photographs at the exhibition show the effects of desertification, flooding and plastic pollution. A black and white image shows the ruins of a house in West Bengal, India, sloping towards the Ganges River, with the owner sitting alongside. Riverbank erosion is degrading the environment and displacing communities in the area. Photographer Masood Sarwer said in a press release that the photo depicts the “slow violence” of climate change: “These are not sudden disasters, but slow-moving, relentless ones — shaping a new category of environmental refugees.”

    Another photo, taken by Aung Chan Thar, shows children fishing for trash in Inle Lake, Myanmar. The lake was once a pristine natural wonder but now faces the growing threat of plastic pollution. “This image of children cleaning the water symbolizes the importance of education and collective action in preserving our environment for a sustainable future,” he said.

    Organizers hope that the exhibition will help to humanize the climate crisis. “Our mission is to inspire new perspectives through photography,” said Pauline Benthede, global vice president of artistic direction and exhibitions at Fotografiska, the museum of photography, art and culture that is curating the exhibition at the summit. “It draws attention to the human rights issue at the heart of global warming, which affects both the world’s landscapes and the people that live within them.”

    “Photography is the most influential and inclusive art form of our times and has the power to foster understanding and inspire action,” she added.

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  87. Elon Musk stood next to President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Friday, but the physical proximity belied a growing philosophical divide between two of the world’s most powerful men, resulting in the tech mogul’s abrupt announcement that he is departing Washington — without having achieved his goal of decimating the federal government.
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    Trump took a more charitable view of Musk’s tenure during a sprawling news conference in which he also declined to rule out pardoning Sean “Diddy” Combs, who is on trial on charges of sex trafficking and other alleged crimes; said he dislikes “the concept” of former first lady Jill Biden being forced to testify before Congress about her husband’s mental fitness; and predicted again that Iran is on the cusp of making a deal that would suspend its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
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    In a battle of plutocrats against populists, Bannon, a longtime advocate for reducing the size and scope of government, found Musk’s methods and policy preferences to be sharply at odds with those of the MAGA movement. So, ultimately, did Musk, who broke with Trump repeatedly on agenda items as narrow as limiting visas for foreign workers and as broad as Trump’s signature “big beautiful” budget bill — which Musk belittled for threatening to add trillions of dollars to the national debt.

    “I was, like, disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decrease it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing,” Musk said in an interview with CBS’ “Sunday Morning,” which will air this weekend.
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    “I love the gold on the ceiling,” he said.

    Musk has argued that inertia throttled his efforts to reduce government spending — a conclusion that raises questions about whether he was naive about the challenge of the mission he undertook.

    “The federal bureaucracy situation is much worse than I realized,” he told The Washington Post this week. “I thought there were problems, but it sure is an uphill battle trying to improve things in D.C., to say the least.”

    On Friday, he drew an implicit parallel between American government and the Nazi regime that committed a genocide, invoking the “banality of evil” that Hannah Arendt used to describe the atrocities in Germany.
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  88. President Donald Trump wants to bring back American manufacturing in ways that would reshape the United States economy to look more like China’s. The campaign, which has led to a rapidly escalating trade war with China, has given ample social media fodder to Chinese and American observers alike.
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    Announcing a series of sweeping tariffs in a move dubbed “Liberation Day,” Trump said last week that it will lead factories to move production back to American shores, boosting the U.S. economy after “foreign leaders have stolen our jobs, foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories, and foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream.”
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    In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Trump announced that he is raising tariffs on goods imported from China to 125%, up from the 104% that took effect the same day, due to “the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.” Higher targeted tariffs on other countries have been paused for 90 days, although the 10% baseline tariff will remain in place for all countries.
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    Meme-makers and Chinese government officials have in recent days begun pointing out the irony of Trump’s tariff-driven manufacturing pivot through AI-generated satire and political cartoons that have percolated online, with many American users boosting the jokes.
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  89. WASHINGTON — “Liberation Day” just gave way to Capitulation Day.
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    President Donald Trump pulled back Wednesday on a series of harsh tariffs targeting friends and foes alike in an audacious bid to remake the global economic order.

    Trump’s early afternoon announcement followed a harrowing week in which Republican lawmakers and confidants privately warned him that the tariffs could wreck the economy. His own aides had quietly raised alarms about the financial markets before he suspended a tariff regime that he had unveiled with a flourish just one week earlier in a Rose Garden ceremony.

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    The stock market rose immediately after the about-face, ending days of losses that have forced older Americans who’ve been sinking their savings into 401(k)s to rethink their retirement plans.

    Ahead of Trump’s announcement, some of his advisers had been in a near panic about the bond markets, according to a senior administration official. Interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds had been rising, contrary to what normally happens when stock prices fall and investors seek safety in treasuries. The unusual dynamic meant that at the same time the tariffs could push up prices, people would be paying more to buy homes or pay off credit card debt because of higher interest rates. Businesses looking to expand would pay more for new loans.
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    Two of Trump’s most senior advisers, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, presented a united front Wednesday, urging him to suspend the tariffs in light of the bond market, the administration official said.

    In a social media post, Trump announced a 90-day pause that he said he’ll use to negotiate deals with dozens of countries that have expressed openness to revising trade terms that he contends exploit American businesses and workers. One exception is China. Trump upped the tariff on the country’s biggest geopolitical rival to 125%, part of a tit-for-tat escalation in an evolving trade war.

    Trump reversed course one week after he appeared in the Rose Garden and unveiled his plan to bring jobs back to the United States. Displaying a chart showing the new, elevated tariffs that countries would face, Trump proclaimed, “My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day.”
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